Sam Darnold

Seattle Seahawks · QB · #14

ARI @ SEA · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1401 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs quarterbacks
ARI allow 2.25 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 3rd most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 37.7 attempts · 2026: 30.1 (7 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 vs CHI
Game lines
SEA −11.5 · total 41.5 (6 sportsbooks)
SEA's games this season closed at 43.3 on average (8 games)

40%4 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 7 at home).

vs SF, 2026-01-17: 1, missed, 17 attempts
vs LAR, 2026-01-25: 3, cleared, 36 attempts
at NE, 2026-02-08: 1, missed, 38 attempts
vs NE, 2026-09-09: 0, missed, 2 attempts
at WSH, 2026-09-27: 4, cleared, 45 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 22 attempts
vs SF, 2026-10-11: 1, missed, 29 attempts
at DEN, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 51 attempts
vs KC, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 28 attempts
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 34 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ARI in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 4 against ARI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ARI

Darnold didn't play the Sep 20 meeting; passing tds the last time Darnold faced them: 1 (Nov 9, 2025)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against ARI on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Pass attempts: 30.2; 10 games · 28.4 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 55%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9001 book	—	8/10
−1401 book	+1061 book	4/10
+2701 book	—	2/10
+8801 book	—	1/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel8 min ago	−140Best	+106Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:32 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −144 → −140 since first seen