Rachaad White

Washington Commanders · RB · #1

LAR @ WSH · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Receptions, typical price +1016 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Receptions hit in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 at home).

vs ATL, 2025-12-11: 1, hit, 1 targets
at CAR, 2025-12-21: 2, hit, 2 targets
at MIA, 2025-12-28: 2, hit, 2 targets
vs CAR, 2026-01-03: 2, hit, 2 targets
at PHI, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 2 targets
at DAL, 2026-09-20: 6, missed, 6 targets
vs SEA, 2026-09-27: 1, hit, 1 targets
vs NYG, 2026-10-11: 1, hit, 1 targets
at SF, 2026-10-19: 4, missed, 5 targets
vs PHI, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 3 targets

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Jayden Daniels led WSH in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Athan Kaliakmanis 1; Marcus Mariota 1. Under 2.5 with Daniels at quarterback: 3 of 5; with another WSH quarterback: 1 of 1
New team
6 games with WSH; before that, TB
Under 2.5 with WSH: 4 of 6; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Defense vs running backs
LAR allow 5.5 receptions a game to running backs: 4th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 3 (6 games)
Target share: 10% last 3 games · 9% over 6 games this season

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAR in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 1 against LAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs LAR

Receptions: 1 in 1 targets, Nov 23, 2025 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against LAR on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at +101
Books’ fair: 46%; margin removed
Our chance: 49%; estimate · fair +105

Research, not a pick. At +106 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair +105, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−50003 books	—	0/10
−4004 books	—	3/10
−1336 books	+1014 books	8/10
+1854 books	—	8/10
+4104 books	—	9/10
+9004 books	—	9/10
+12001 book	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel1 min ago	−140	+106Best
Bovada5 min ago	−135	+105
Pinnacle5 min ago	−133	+101
betPARXjust now	−127Best	−103
Bally Bet5 min ago	−129	—
BetRivers1 min ago	−129	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:28 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen