Quentin Johnston

Los Angeles Chargers · WR · #1

HOU @ LAC · Sun, Nov 8 4:05 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1303 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs wide receivers
HOU allow 14.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 3rd most of 32
7 games
SunTargets
Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 4.3 (6 games) · down 30%
Target share: 9% last 3 games · 14% over 6 games this season
Quarterback
Justin Herbert led LAC in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 2.5 with Herbert at quarterback: 17 of 41; with another LAC quarterback: 3 of 5
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at LAR

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Receptions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

vs PHI, 2025-12-08: 2, hit, 3 targets
at DAL, 2025-12-21: 4, missed, 5 targets
vs HOU, 2025-12-27: 5, missed, 8 targets
at NE, 2026-01-11: 3, missed, 6 targets
vs ARI, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 6 targets
vs LV, 2026-09-20: 1, hit, 5 targets
at BUF, 2026-09-27: 3, missed, 6 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-04: 1, hit, 2 targets
at KC, 2026-10-18: 1, hit, 3 targets
at LAR, 2026-11-01: 4, missed, 4 targets

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs HOU

Receptions: 5 in 8 targets, Dec 27, 2025 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against HOU on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −116

Research, not a pick. At −116 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −116, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3101 book	—	3/10
+1003 books	−1303 books	5/10
+2501 book	—	7/10
+5501 book	—	9/10
+11001 book	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle17 min ago	−114	−116Best
Bovada17 min ago	+100	−130
FanDuel17 min ago	+102Best	−136
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:29 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −136 → −130 since first seen