Quentin Johnston

Los Angeles Chargers · WR · #1

HOU @ LAC · Sun, Nov 8 4:05 PM

Over Under31.5

Over 31.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1185 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 31.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 at home).

vs PHI, 2025-12-08: 8, missed, 3 targets
at DAL, 2025-12-21: 104, cleared, 5 targets
vs HOU, 2025-12-27: 98, cleared, 8 targets
at NE, 2026-01-11: 20, missed, 6 targets
vs ARI, 2026-09-13: 17, missed, 6 targets
vs LV, 2026-09-20: 7, missed, 5 targets
at BUF, 2026-09-27: 40, cleared, 6 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-04: 44, cleared, 2 targets
at KC, 2026-10-18: 57, cleared, 3 targets
at LAR, 2026-11-01: 37, cleared, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 31.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 10.3–66.7 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 31.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs wide receivers
HOU allow 195.9 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: the most of 32
7 games
SunTargets
Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 4.3 (6 games) · down 30%
Target share: 9% last 3 games · 14% over 6 games this season
Quarterback
Justin Herbert led LAC in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 31.5 with Herbert at quarterback: 24 of 41; with another LAC quarterback: 1 of 5
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at LAR

Splits

Over 31.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs HOU

Receiving Yards: 98 in 8 targets, Dec 27, 2025 (home)

Over 31.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against HOU on record

L10 · Over 31.5

Average: 43.2; +11.7 vs line
Median: 38.5; +7 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1801 book	—	6/10
−1324 books	—	6/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	6/10
−1185 books	−1224 books	6/10
+1254 books	—	5/10
+2051 book	—	3/10
+3101 book	—	2/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 31.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 31.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 31.5	Under 31.5
FanDuel10 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle11 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Bally Bet11 min ago	−118	—
betPARX11 min ago	−118	−122
BetRivers11 min ago	−118	−122
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:52 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

31.5

−115 → −118 since first seen