Patrick MahomesQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs · QB · #15

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1296 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

vs HOU, 2025-12-07: 0, missed, 33 attempts
vs LAC, 2025-12-14: 0, missed, 28 attempts
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 2, cleared, 27 attempts
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 3, cleared, 47 attempts
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 2, cleared, 24 attempts
at LV, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 30 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 30 attempts
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 0, missed, 33 attempts
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 41 attempts
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 2, cleared, 31 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 passing tds.

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
ATL allow 1.56 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 13th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 35 attempts · 2026: 32.9 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ
Game lines
KC −3.5 · total 46.5 (7 sportsbooks)
KC's games this season closed at 44.5 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Passing TDs: 2 in 39 attempts, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −129
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −122

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −122, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9104 books	—	6/10
−1296 books	−1035 books	6/10
+3104 books	—	2/10
+12004 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Pinnacle19 min ago	−114Best	−116
Bally Bet19 min ago	−129	—
betPARX19 min ago	−129	−103
BetRivers19 min ago	−129	−103
FanDuel19 min ago	−130	−102
Bovada19 min ago	−135	+105Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:37 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −114 → −129 since first seen