Patrick MahomesQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs · QB · #15

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under21.5

Over 21.5 Completions, typical price −1135 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 21.5 Completions cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).

vs HOU, 2025-12-07: 14, missed, 33 attempts
vs LAC, 2025-12-14: 16, missed, 28 attempts
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 15, missed, 27 attempts
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 32, cleared, 47 attempts
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 20, missed, 24 attempts
at LV, 2026-10-04: 15, missed, 30 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 23, cleared, 30 attempts
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 19, missed, 33 attempts
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 30, cleared, 41 attempts
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 23, cleared, 31 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 21.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 13.6–29.7 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
ATL allow 23.3 completions a game to quarterbacks: 5th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 35 attempts · 2026: 32.9 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ
Game lines
KC −3.5 · total 46.5 (7 sportsbooks)
KC's games this season closed at 44.5 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 21.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Completions: 26 in 39 attempts, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Over 21.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 21.5

Average: 20.7; −0.8 vs line
Median: 19.5; −2 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −103

Research, not a pick. At −107 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −103, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−12503 books	—	6/10
−2753 books	—	5/10
−1135 books	−1153 books	4/10
+1753 books	—	2/10
+3303 books	—	2/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
Pinnacle13 min ago	−107Best	−124
Bally Bet13 min ago	−113	—
betPARX13 min ago	−113	−115
BetRivers13 min ago	−114	—
Bovada13 min ago	−120	−110Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

Over: −125 → −113 since first seen