Patrick MahomesQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs · QB · #15

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under32.5

Under 32.5 Passing Attempts, typical price −1225 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 32.5 Passing Attempts hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

vs HOU, 2025-12-07: 33, missed, 33 attempts
vs LAC, 2025-12-14: 28, hit, 28 attempts
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 27, hit, 27 attempts
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 47, missed, 47 attempts
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 24, hit, 24 attempts
at LV, 2026-10-04: 30, hit, 30 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 30, hit, 30 attempts
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 33, missed, 33 attempts
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 41, missed, 41 attempts
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 31, hit, 31 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 32.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 22.7–42 passing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Under 32.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
ATL allow 35.2 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks: 6th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 35 attempts · 2026: 32.9 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ
Game lines
KC −3.5 · total 46.5 (7 sportsbooks)
KC's games this season closed at 44.5 on average (8 games)

Splits

Under 32.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Under 32.5 hit in 0 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Passing Attempts: 39 in 39 attempts, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Under 32.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Under 32.5

Average: 32.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 30.5; −2 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −122
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −113

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −113, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4553 books	—	2/10
−2453 books	—	3/10
−1393 books	—	6/10
−1085 books	−1224 books	6/10
+1203 books	—	8/10
+1883 books	—	8/10
+2853 books	—	8/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks at 32.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 32.5 Passing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 32.5	Under 32.5
Pinnacle17 min ago	−114	−114Best
betPARX17 min ago	−108	−121
BetRivers17 min ago	−109	−122
Bovada17 min ago	−105Best	−125
Bally Bet17 min ago	−108	—

Prices as of 7:07 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

32.5

−110 → −122 since first seen