Patrick MahomesQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs · QB · #15

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under251.5

Under 251.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1173 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 251.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

vs HOU, 2025-12-07: 219, hit, 40 attempts + carries
vs LAC, 2025-12-14: 204, hit, 30 attempts + carries
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 207, hit, 34 attempts + carries
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 399, missed, 49 attempts + carries
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 247, hit, 25 attempts + carries
at LV, 2026-10-04: 225, hit, 32 attempts + carries
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 288, missed, 35 attempts + carries
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 179, hit, 35 attempts + carries
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 327, missed, 43 attempts + carries
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 250, hit, 33 attempts + carries

Under hitMissedThe 251.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 161.2–343.1 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 251.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 37 attempts + carries · 2026: 35.8 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ
Game lines
KC −3.5 · total 46.5 (7 sportsbooks)
KC's games this season closed at 44.5 on average (8 games)
ATL injuries
Divine Deablo (LB, Questionable, 5.7 tackles); Gervon Dexter Sr. (DT, Questionable, 2.7 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)

Splits

Under 251.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Under 251.5 hit in 1 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Pass+Rush Yards: 234 in 45 attempts + carries, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Under 251.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Under 251.5

Average: 254.5; +3 vs line
Median: 236; −15.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −110

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −110, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5903 books	—	1/10
−2453 books	—	4/10
−1183 books	—	6/10
−1133 books	−1172 books	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	7/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	7/10
+1603 books	—	7/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 251.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 251.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 251.5	Under 251.5
betPARX19 min ago	−113Best	−115Best
BetRivers19 min ago	−114	−117
Bally Bet19 min ago	−113Best	—

Prices as of 5:37 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

251.5

254.5 → 251.5 since first seen