Noah Gray
NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 11.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 11.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).
What's different on Sunday
Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Patrick Mahomes led KC in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 11.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 30 of 45; with another KC quarterback: 1 of 4
Defense vs tight ends
NYJ allow 59.1 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 10th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 2.7 targets · 2026: 2.3 (7 games)
Target share: 8% last 3 games · 7% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at DEN
Splits
Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 11.5
- Average
- 21.9
- +10.4 vs line
- Median
- 16
- +4.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 52%
- at −110
- Books’ fair
- 49%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 2.5
- 10 games · 2.8 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 11.5 49%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2701 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −1374 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1201 book | −1101 book | 7/10 | |
| −1105 books | −1204 books | 7/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 7/10 | |
| +1181 book | — | 6/10 | |
| +1954 books | — | 4/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 11.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 11.5 | Under 11.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet3 min ago | −109Best | — |
| betPARX5 min ago | −109Best | −120 |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −110 | −121 |
| FanDuel3 min ago | −114 | −114Best |
| Pinnacle3 min ago | −114 | −114Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
11.510.5 → 11.5 since first seen