Nate Boerkircher
JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
What's different tonight
Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week
Defense vs tight ends
BAL allow 4.4 receptions a game to tight ends: 27th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 1.7 targets · 2026: 1.5 (6 games)
Target share: 5% last 3 games · 5% over 6 games this season
Game lines
JAX −9.5 · total 40.5 (7 sportsbooks)
JAX's games this season closed at 44.8 on average (7 games)
Game log against Over 0.5
83%5 of 6L6
Over 0.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 6 games (1 of 1 on the road).
Splits
Over 0.5 · L6 · counts, not in orderNo game against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L6 · Over 0.5
- Average
- 1.2
- +0.7 vs line
- Median
- 1
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 83%
- 5 of 6
- Price implies
- 69%
- at −227
- Books’ fair
- 65%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 1.5
- 6 games
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 65%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L6| Line | Over | Under | L6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2272 books | +1682 books | 5/6 | |
| +2001 book | — | 2/6 | |
| +6401 book | — | 0/6 |
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada6 min ago | −220Best | +165 |
| FanDuel7 min ago | −235 | +172Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
0.5−232 → −227 since first seen