Nate Boerkircher
JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
What's different tonight
Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week
Defense vs tight ends
BAL allow 46.5 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 22nd most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 1.7 targets · 2026: 1.5 (6 games)
Target share: 5% last 3 games · 5% over 6 games this season
Game lines
JAX −9.5 · total 40.5 (6 sportsbooks)
JAX's games this season closed at 44.8 on average (7 games)
Game log against Over 7.5
83%5 of 6L6
Over 7.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 5 of his last 6 games (1 of 1 on the road).
Splits
Over 7.5 · L6 · counts, not in orderNo game against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L6 · Over 7.5
- Average
- 13.8
- +6.3 vs line
- Median
- 12
- +4.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 83%
- 5 of 6
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 1.5
- 6 games
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 7.5 50%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L6| Line | Over | Under | L6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1721 book | — | 5/6 | |
| −1142 books | −1142 books | 5/6 | |
| +1121 book | — | 3/6 | |
| +1881 book | — | 3/6 | |
| +2801 book | — | 2/6 | |
| +4001 book | — | 1/6 | |
| +5801 book | — | 1/6 |
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 7.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 7.5 | Under 7.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel4 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| Bovada3 min ago | −115 | −115 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
7.56.5 → 7.5 since first seen