Nate Boerkircher
JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
What's different tonight
Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week
Defense vs tight ends
BAL allow 4.4 receptions a game to tight ends: 27th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 1.7 targets · 2026: 1.5 (6 games)
Target share: 5% last 3 games · 5% over 6 games this season
Game lines
JAX −9.5 · total 42.5 (5 sportsbooks)
JAX's games this season closed at 44.8 on average (7 games)
Game log against Over 0.5
83%5 of 6L6
Over 0.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 6 games (1 of 1 on the road).
Count only
Over 0.5 · L6L6 · Over 0.5
- Average
- 1.2
- +0.7 vs line
- Median
- 1
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 83%
- 5 of 6
- Price implies
- 70%
- at −235
- Books’ fair
- 66%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 1.5
- 6 games
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 66%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L6| Line | Over | Under | L6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2351 book | +1721 book | 5/6 | |
| +1981 book | — | 2/6 | |
| +6301 book | — | 0/6 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel1 min ago | −235Best | +172Best |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:11 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
0.5Over −232 → −235 since first seen