Matthew Stafford
LAR @ ARI · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM
Game log against Over 212.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 212.5 Passing Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 124.5–360.8 passing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 212.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
ARI allow 230.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 20th most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 32.3 attempts · 2026: 38.4 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at WSH
Game lines
LAR −9.5 · total 39.5 (8 sportsbooks)
LAR's games this season closed at 47.9 on average (9 games)
Splits
Over 212.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
Last vs ARI
Passing Yards: 222 in 33 attempts, Oct 18 (home)
Over 212.5 hit in 5 of 6 games against ARI on record
L10 · Over 212.5
- Average
- 274.8
- +62.3 vs line
- Median
- 272.5
- +60 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −133
Research, not a pick. At −114 the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −6001 book | — | 10/10 | |
| −3101 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −1581 book | — | 7/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 7/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 7/10 | |
| +1181 book | — | 6/10 | |
| +2051 book | — | 5/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 212.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 212.5 | Under 212.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel7 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 5:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
212.5No move since first seen