Matthew Stafford
LAR @ ARI · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM
Game log against Over 1.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 passing tds.
What's different on Sunday
Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pickSunDefense vs quarterbacks
ARI allow 2.11 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 3rd most of 32
9 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 32.3 attempts · 2026: 38.4 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at WSH
Game lines
LAR −9.5 · total 39.5 (8 sportsbooks)
LAR's games this season closed at 47.9 on average (9 games)
Splits
Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
Last vs ARI
Passing TDs: 2 in 33 attempts, Oct 18 (home)
Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against ARI on record
L10 · Over 1.5
- Average
- 1.9
- +0.4 vs line
- Median
- 2
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 50%
- at −102
- Books’ fair
- 47%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 49%
- estimate · fair +105
Research, not a pick. At −102 the price is worse than our fair +105, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −6001 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −1021 book | −1301 book | 6/10 | |
| +3601 book | — | 4/10 | |
| +11001 book | — | 1/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel4 min ago | −102Best | −130Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Over: No move since first seen