Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles Rams · QB · #9

LAR @ WSH · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1676 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at CHI, 2026-01-18: 0, missed, 42 attempts
at SEA, 2026-01-25: 3, cleared, 35 attempts
vs SF, 2026-09-10: 0, missed, 25 attempts
vs NYG, 2026-09-21: 4, cleared, 31 attempts
at DEN, 2026-09-27: 2, cleared, 55 attempts
at PHI, 2026-10-04: 0, missed, 51 attempts
vs BUF, 2026-10-12: 3, cleared, 54 attempts
vs ARI, 2026-10-18: 2, cleared, 33 attempts
at LV, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 29 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 25 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 passing tds.

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
WSH allow 2.14 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 5th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 29 attempts · 2026: 37.9 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs LAC
Game lines
LAR −5.5 · total 48 (6 sportsbooks)
LAR's games this season closed at 48 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs WSH

Passing TDs: 2 in 33 attempts, Dec 17, 2023 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against WSH on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −167
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −158 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−12504 books	—	7/10
−1676 books	+1225 books	6/10
+2354 books	—	4/10
+8504 books	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Pinnacle3 min ago	−158Best	+118
Bovada3 min ago	−160	+120
FanDuel3 min ago	−162	+122
Bally Bet3 min ago	−167	—
betPARX3 min ago	−167	+128Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−167	+125
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:00 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −188 → −167 since first seen