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Matthew Golden

Green Bay Packers · WR · #0

GB @ NE · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
OverUnder5.5
Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1526 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jordan Love led GB in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 5.5 with Love at quarterback: 16 of 21; with another GB quarterback: 2 of 2

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    NE allow 12.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 10th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 12.7 targets · 2026: 10.3 (8 games)

    Target share: 30% last 3 games · 26% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    9 days off since Oct 29 vs CAR

Game log against Under 5.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

  1. at MIN, 2026-01-04: 1, hit, 3 targets
  2. at CHI, 2026-01-10: 4, hit, 5 targets
  3. at MIN, 2026-09-13: 6, missed, 12 targets
  4. at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 4, hit, 6 targets
  5. vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 5, hit, 12 targets
  6. at TB, 2026-10-04: 3, hit, 7 targets
  7. vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 6, missed, 7 targets
  8. vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 6, missed, 13 targets
  9. at DET, 2026-10-25: 6, missed, 12 targets
  10. vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 7, missed, 13 targets
Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 5.5

Average
4.8
−0.7 vs line
Median
5.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
60%
at −152
Books’ fair
57%
margin removed
Our chance
56%
estimate · fair −125

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −125, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−14304 books—1/10
−4204 books—2/10
−1754 books—4/10
+1156 books−1524 books5/10
+2254 books—9/10
+4254 books—10/10
+8004 books—10/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 5.5Under 5.5
Bovada1 min ago+115−150Best
FanDuel1 min ago+114−152
Pinnacle1 min ago+114−152
betPARX1 min ago+120Best−157
Bally Bet1 min ago+120Best—
BetRivers1 min ago+118—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 1:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Under −155 → −152 since first seen

Matthew Golden's full game log and splits