Malik Willis

Miami Dolphins · QB · #2

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under29.5

Over 29.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1142 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 29.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
7 games with MIA; before that, GB
Over 29.5 with MIA: 4 of 7; his last 9 games before: 4 of 9
Defense vs quarterbacks
DET allow 20.9 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks: 7th most of 32
7 games
Carries
Last 3: 5.7 carries · 2026: 5.1 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE

60%6 of 10L10

Over 29.5 Rushing Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs MIN, 2025-11-23: 3, missed, 2 carries
at CHI, 2025-12-20: 44, cleared, 10 carries
vs BAL, 2025-12-27: 60, cleared, 9 carries
at LV, 2026-09-13: 39, cleared, 6 carries
at SF, 2026-09-20: 6, missed, 2 carries
vs KC, 2026-09-27: 56, cleared, 9 carries
at MIN, 2026-10-04: 11, missed, 2 carries
vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 74, cleared, 8 carries
at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 37, cleared, 8 carries
vs NE, 2026-11-01: 2, missed, 1 carries

ClearedMissedThe 29.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2.5–72.2 rushing yards.

Splits

Over 29.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 29.5

Average: 33.2; +3.7 vs line
Median: 38; +8.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −121

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −121, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5801 book	—	6/10
−3101 book	—	6/10
−1861 book	—	6/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
+1821 book	—	4/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 29.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 29.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 29.5	Under 29.5
FanDuel6 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle7 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

29.5

No move since first seen