Malik Willis

Miami Dolphins · QB · #2

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under6.5

Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price +1123 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs MIN, 2025-11-23: 2, missed, 2 carries
at CHI, 2025-12-20: 10, cleared, 10 carries
vs BAL, 2025-12-27: 9, cleared, 9 carries
at LV, 2026-09-13: 6, missed, 6 carries
at SF, 2026-09-20: 2, missed, 2 carries
vs KC, 2026-09-27: 9, cleared, 9 carries
at MIN, 2026-10-04: 2, missed, 2 carries
vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 8, cleared, 8 carries
at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 8, cleared, 8 carries
vs NE, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 1 carries

ClearedMissedThe 6.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1.9–12.1 rushing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Over 6.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
7 games with MIA; before that, GB
Over 6.5 with MIA: 3 of 7; his last 9 games before: 2 of 9
Carries
Last 3: 5.7 carries · 2026: 5.1 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE
Game lines
MIA +7 · total 50 (7 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 42.2 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 6.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 6.5

Average: 5.7; −0.8 vs line
Median: 7; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 47%; at +112
Books’ fair: 44%; margin removed
Our chance: 48%; estimate · fair +110

Research, not a pick. At +112 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair +110, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7703 books	—	6/10
−1623 books	—	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
+1123 books	−1431 book	5/10
+1853 books	—	5/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 6.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 6.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	+112Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	+112Best	−143Best
BetRivers5 min ago	+110	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:01 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

6.5

+100 → +112 since first seen