Malik Willis

Miami Dolphins · QB · #2

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under208.5

Under 208.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1142 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 208.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs quarterbacks
DET allow 297.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: the most of 32
7 games
New team
7 games with MIA; before that, GB
Under 208.5 with MIA: 4 of 7; his last 10 games before: 9 of 10
Pass attempts
Last 3: 26.7 attempts · 2026: 26.1 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE

60%6 of 10L10

Under 208.5 Passing Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

vs MIN, 2025-11-23: 7, hit, 1 attempts
at CHI, 2025-12-20: 121, hit, 11 attempts
vs BAL, 2025-12-27: 288, missed, 21 attempts
at LV, 2026-09-13: 220, missed, 27 attempts
at SF, 2026-09-20: 197, hit, 23 attempts
vs KC, 2026-09-27: 210, missed, 36 attempts
at MIN, 2026-10-04: 85, hit, 17 attempts
vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 136, hit, 27 attempts
at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 208, hit, 21 attempts
vs NE, 2026-11-01: 211, missed, 32 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 208.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 132.1–261.9 passing yards.

Splits

Under 208.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 208.5

Average: 168.3; −40.2 vs line
Median: 202.5; −6 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −119

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −119, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
—	—	5/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	6/10
+1281 book	—	9/10
+2251 book	—	9/10
+4001 book	—	9/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 208.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 208.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 208.5	Under 208.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

208.5

No move since first seen