Malik Willis
DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PMGame log against Under 241.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 241.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 151.6–298.6 pass+rush yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 241.5 · facts from past games, not a pickNew team
7 games with MIA; before that, GB
Under 241.5 with MIA: 4 of 7; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 32.3 attempts + carries · 2026: 31.3 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE
Game lines
MIA +7 · total 50.5 (8 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 42.2 on average (7 games)
Splits
Under 241.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 241.5
- Average
- 201.5
- −40 vs line
- Median
- 211.5
- −30 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 55%
- estimate · fair −123
Research, not a pick. At −115 the price beats our fair −123, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 6/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook at 241.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 241.5 | Under 241.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada6 min ago | −115Best | −115Best |
Prices as of 1:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
241.5242.5 → 241.5 since first seen


