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Malik Willis

Miami Dolphins · QB · #2

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder241.5
Under 241.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1151 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 241.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 241.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

  1. vs MIN, 2025-11-23: 10, hit, 3 attempts + carries
  2. at CHI, 2025-12-20: 165, hit, 21 attempts + carries
  3. vs BAL, 2025-12-27: 348, missed, 30 attempts + carries
  4. at LV, 2026-09-13: 259, missed, 33 attempts + carries
  5. at SF, 2026-09-20: 203, hit, 25 attempts + carries
  6. vs KC, 2026-09-27: 266, missed, 45 attempts + carries
  7. at MIN, 2026-10-04: 96, hit, 19 attempts + carries
  8. vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 210, hit, 35 attempts + carries
  9. at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 245, missed, 29 attempts + carries
  10. vs NE, 2026-11-01: 213, hit, 33 attempts + carries
Under hitMissedThe 241.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 151.6–298.6 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 241.5 · facts from past games, not a pick
  • New team

    7 games with MIA; before that, GB

    Under 241.5 with MIA: 4 of 7; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10

  • Pass attempts + carries

    Last 3: 32.3 attempts + carries · 2026: 31.3 (7 games)

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE

  • Game lines

    MIA +7 · total 50.5 (8 sportsbooks)

    MIA's games this season closed at 42.2 on average (7 games)

Splits

Under 241.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 241.5

Average
201.5
−40 vs line
Median
211.5
−30 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −115
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
55%
estimate · fair −123

Research, not a pick. At −115 the price beats our fair −123, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−1151 book−1151 book6/10
Compare 1 sportsbook at 241.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 241.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 241.5Under 241.5
Bovada6 min ago−115Best−115Best

Prices as of 1:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

241.5

242.5 → 241.5 since first seen

Malik Willis's full game log and splits