Malik Washington

Miami Dolphins · WR · #6

MIA @ IND · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1062 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs TB, 2025-12-28: 1, missed, 3 targets
at NE, 2026-01-04: 3, missed, 4 targets
at LV, 2026-09-13: 3, missed, 8 targets
at SF, 2026-09-20: 4, cleared, 5 targets
vs KC, 2026-09-27: 5, cleared, 10 targets
at MIN, 2026-10-04: 5, cleared, 5 targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 6, cleared, 8 targets
at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 3, missed, 3 targets
vs NE, 2026-11-01: 5, cleared, 6 targets
vs DET, 2026-11-08: 2, missed, 3 targets

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunQuarterback
Malik Willis: Injured Reserve (abdomen). He led MIA in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 3.5 with Willis at quarterback: 5 of 8; with another MIA quarterback: 8 of 28
SunTargets
Last 3: 4 targets · 2026: 6 (8 games) · down 33%
Target share: 15% last 3 games · 23% over 8 games this season
Defense vs wide receivers
IND allow 9.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: 28th most of 32
9 games
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs DET

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against IND in his last 10; Over 3.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against IND on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs IND

Receptions: 2 in 5 targets, Sep 7, 2025 (away)

Over 3.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against IND on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 3.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 3.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −106
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −108

Research, not a pick. At −106 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −108, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9001 book	—	9/10
−2601 book	—	8/10
−1062 books	−1252 books	5/10
+2001 book	—	4/10
+4001 book	—	1/10
+7501 book	—	0/10
+12601 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel11 min ago	−106Best	−125Best
Pinnacle11 min ago	−106Best	−125Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

−118 → −106 since first seen