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Malik Washington

Miami Dolphins · WR · #6

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1576 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 4.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

  1. vs CIN, 2025-12-21: 1, hit, 1 targets
  2. vs TB, 2025-12-28: 1, hit, 3 targets
  3. at NE, 2026-01-04: 3, hit, 4 targets
  4. at LV, 2026-09-13: 3, hit, 8 targets
  5. at SF, 2026-09-20: 4, hit, 5 targets
  6. vs KC, 2026-09-27: 5, missed, 10 targets
  7. at MIN, 2026-10-04: 5, missed, 5 targets
  8. vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 6, missed, 8 targets
  9. at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 3, hit, 3 targets
  10. vs NE, 2026-11-01: 5, missed, 6 targets
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunDefense vs wide receivers

    DET allow 14.1 receptions a game to wide receivers: 2nd most of 32

    7 games

  • Quarterback

    Malik Willis led MIA in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Under 4.5 with Willis at quarterback: 3 of 7; with another MIA quarterback: 26 of 28

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 6.4 (7 games)

    Target share: 21% last 3 games · 25% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 4.5

Average
3.6
−0.9 vs line
Median
3.5
−1 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
61%
at −157
Books’ fair
57%
margin removed
Our chance
55%
estimate · fair −120

Research, not a pick. At −148 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −120, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−33353 books—2/10
−5604 books—2/10
−1954 books—5/10
+1186 books−1574 books6/10
+2404 books—9/10
+4754 books—10/10
+9504 books—10/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
FanDuel3 min ago+112−148Best
Pinnacle5 min ago+112−148Best
betPARX6 min ago+120Best−157
Bovada5 min ago+120Best−160
Bally Bet5 min ago+120Best—
BetRivers4 min ago+118—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 8:36 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−160 → −157 since first seen

Malik Washington's full game log and splits