Kyren Williams
LAR @ ARI · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PMGame log against Under 88.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 88.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 28.6–127.3 rush+rec yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 88.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs running backs
ARI allow 133.2 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 11th most of 32
9 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 18 carries + targets · 2026: 19.2 (9 games)
Target share: 7% last 3 games · 13% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at WSH
Game lines
LAR −9.5 · total 39.5 (8 sportsbooks)
LAR's games this season closed at 47.9 on average (9 games)
Splits
Under 88.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
Last vs ARI
Rush+Rec Yards: 67 in 16 carries + targets, Oct 18 (home)
Under 88.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against ARI on record
L10 · Under 88.5
- Average
- 91.2
- +2.7 vs line
- Median
- 71.5
- −17 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 55%
- estimate · fair −122
Research, not a pick. At −114 the price beats our fair −122, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 6/10 | |
| — | — | 6/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 88.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 88.5 | Under 88.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel5 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
88.5No move since first seen


