Kyren Williams

Los Angeles Rams · RB · #23

LAR @ WSH · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under79.5

Under 79.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 79.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 on the road).

at CHI, 2026-01-18: 117, missed, 26 carries + targets
at SEA, 2026-01-25: 61, hit, 12 carries + targets
vs SF, 2026-09-10: 65, hit, 14 carries + targets
vs NYG, 2026-09-21: 97, missed, 14 carries + targets
at DEN, 2026-09-27: 158, missed, 22 carries + targets
at PHI, 2026-10-04: 147, missed, 29 carries + targets
vs BUF, 2026-10-12: 76, hit, 24 carries + targets
vs ARI, 2026-10-18: 67, hit, 16 carries + targets
at LV, 2026-10-25: 121, missed, 18 carries + targets
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 59, hit, 17 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 79.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 30.4–130.1 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 79.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs running backs
WSH allow 111.9 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 25th most of 32
7 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 17 carries + targets · 2026: 19.3 (8 games)
Target share: 10% last 3 games · 14% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs LAC
Game lines
LAR −4.5 · total 48.5 (9 sportsbooks)
LAR's games this season closed at 48 on average (8 games)

Splits

Under 79.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 79.5 hit in 0 of 1 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs WSH

Rush+Rec Yards: 155 in 34 carries + targets, Dec 17, 2023 (home)

Under 79.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 79.5

Average: 96.8; +17.3 vs line
Median: 86.5; +7 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair +100

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair +100, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1503 books	—	4/10
−1153 books	−1142 books	5/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
−1131 book	−1151 book	5/10
+2253 books	—	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 79.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 79.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 79.5	Under 79.5
betPARX2 min ago	−115Best	−113Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−117	−114
Bally Bet3 min ago	−115Best	—

Prices as of 11:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

79.5

84.5 → 79.5 since first seen