Kyren Williams

Los Angeles Rams · RB · #23

LAR @ WSH · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1156 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at CHI, 2026-01-18: 4, cleared, 5 targets
at SEA, 2026-01-25: 2, missed, 2 targets
vs SF, 2026-09-10: 3, cleared, 3 targets
vs NYG, 2026-09-21: 2, missed, 2 targets
at DEN, 2026-09-27: 6, cleared, 7 targets
at PHI, 2026-10-04: 10, cleared, 13 targets
vs BUF, 2026-10-12: 6, cleared, 8 targets
vs ARI, 2026-10-18: 3, cleared, 6 targets
at LV, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 2 targets
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 1 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunTargets
Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 5.3 (8 games) · down 43%
Target share: 10% last 3 games · 14% over 8 games this season
Defense vs running backs
WSH allow 5.1 receptions a game to running backs: 9th most of 32
7 games
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs LAC
Game lines
LAR −5.5 · total 48.5 (6 sportsbooks)
LAR's games this season closed at 48 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs WSH

Receptions: 5 in 7 targets, Dec 17, 2023 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against WSH on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.9; +1.4 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −147, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−33353 books	—	10/10
−3604 books	—	9/10
−1156 books	−1144 books	6/10
+2104 books	—	4/10
+4754 books	—	3/10
+10504 books	—	3/10
+12001 book	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−114Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−114Best	−114
BetRivers5 min ago	−115	—
Bovada6 min ago	−115	−115
FanDuel3 min ago	−136	+102Best
Pinnacle7 min ago	−136	+102Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:32 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −136 → −115 since first seen