Kyle Pitts Sr.

Atlanta Falcons · TE · #8

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price +1006 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 at home).

vs NO, 2026-01-04: 6, missed, 9 targets
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 0, hit, 1 targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 1, hit, 3 targets
at GB, 2026-09-24: 1, hit, 2 targets
at NO, 2026-10-05: 3, hit, 3 targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 5, missed, 6 targets
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 5, missed, 7 targets
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 5, missed, 5 targets
at TB, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 5 targets
vs CIN, 2026-11-08: 3, hit, 5 targets

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs tight ends
KC allow 6.6 receptions a game to tight ends: 3rd most of 32
8 games
Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 7 of 9 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 3.5 with Penix at quarterback: 9 of 19; with another ATL quarterback: 20 of 32
Targets
Last 3: 5 targets · 2026: 4.1 (9 games)
Target share: 17% last 3 games · 14% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CIN

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Receptions: 2 in 5 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (home)

Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 3.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at +100
Books’ fair: 46%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −119

Research, not a pick. At +106 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −119, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−14304 books	—	3/10
−3454 books	—	4/10
−1326 books	+1004 books	6/10
+1704 books	—	6/10
+3504 books	—	9/10
+7004 books	—	10/10
+9201 book	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel11 min ago	−140	+106Best
Pinnacle11 min ago	−141	+106Best
betPARX11 min ago	−130	+100
Bovada11 min ago	−125Best	−105
Bally Bet11 min ago	−130	—
BetRivers11 min ago	−132	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: +118 → +100 since first seen