Kirk Cousins

Las Vegas Raiders · QB · #8

LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1174 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with LV; before that, ATL
Over 1.5 with LV: 7 of 8; his last 10 games before: 3 of 10
Defense vs quarterbacks
SF allow 1.43 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 14th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 37 attempts · 2026: 35.4 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at NYJ

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

vs LAR, 2025-12-29: 1, missed, 20 attempts
vs NO, 2026-01-04: 1, missed, 32 attempts
vs MIA, 2026-09-13: 3, cleared, 30 attempts
at LAC, 2026-09-20: 3, cleared, 29 attempts
at NO, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 33 attempts
vs KC, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 52 attempts
at NE, 2026-10-11: 1, missed, 28 attempts
vs BUF, 2026-10-18: 2, cleared, 41 attempts
vs LAR, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 44 attempts
at NYJ, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 26 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 passing tds.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7154 books	—	10/10
−1174 books	−1133 books	7/10
+3354 books	—	4/10
+13004 books	—	0/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	−115Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−115Best	−113
BetRivers5 min ago	−117	−114
FanDuel4 min ago	−118	−112Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:25 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over No move since first seen