Kenneth Walker III

Kansas City Chiefs · RB · #9

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under18.5

Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price +1023 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

30%3 of 10L10

Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts hit in 3 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs LAR, 2026-01-25: 19, missed, 19 carries
at NE, 2026-02-08: 27, missed, 27 carries
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 23, missed, 23 carries
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 24, missed, 24 carries
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 18, hit, 18 carries
at LV, 2026-10-04: 22, missed, 22 carries
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 19, missed, 19 carries
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 14, hit, 14 carries
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 21, missed, 21 carries
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 18, hit, 18 carries

Under hitMissedThe 18.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 11.1–21.4 rushing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Under 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 18.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 3 of 8; with another KC quarterback: no games
New team
8 games with KC; before that, SEA
Under 18.5 with KC: 3 of 8; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10
Defense vs running backs
ATL allow 23.4 carries a game to running backs: 12th most of 32
9 games
Carries
Last 3: 17.7 carries · 2026: 19.9 (8 games)

Splits

Under 18.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Under 18.5 hit in 2 of 2 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Rushing Attempts: 10 in 10 carries, Dec 7, 2025 (away)

Under 18.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against ATL on record

L10 · Under 18.5

Average: 20.5; +2 vs line
Median: 20; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 30%; 3 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at +102
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −111

Research, not a pick. At +102 the price beats our fair −111, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3603 books	—	1/10
−1823 books	—	1/10
−1323 books	+1021 book	3/10
+1023 books	—	5/10
+1803 books	—	6/10
+3203 books	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 18.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 18.5	Under 18.5
betPARX3 min ago	−132Best	+102Best
Bally Bet3 min ago	−132Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−134	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

18.5

19.5 → 18.5 since first seen