Kenneth Walker III

Kansas City Chiefs · RB · #9

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under110.5

Under 110.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

30%3 of 10L10

Under 110.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 3 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs LAR, 2026-01-25: 111, missed, 23 carries + targets
at NE, 2026-02-08: 161, missed, 31 carries + targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 191, missed, 29 carries + targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 178, missed, 34 carries + targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 73, hit, 20 carries + targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 179, missed, 23 carries + targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 139, missed, 22 carries + targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 57, hit, 19 carries + targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 84, hit, 26 carries + targets
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 143, missed, 22 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 110.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 32.4–167.2 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 110.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 110.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 3 of 8; with another KC quarterback: no games
New team
8 games with KC; before that, SEA
Under 110.5 with KC: 3 of 8; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10
Defense vs running backs
ATL allow 141.3 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 5th most of 32
9 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 22.3 carries + targets · 2026: 24.4 (8 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 14% over 8 games this season

Splits

Under 110.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Under 110.5 hit in 2 of 2 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Rush+Rec Yards: 28 in 13 carries + targets, Dec 7, 2025 (away)

Under 110.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against ATL on record

L10 · Under 110.5

Average: 131.6; +21.1 vs line
Median: 141; +30.5 vs line
Hit rate: 30%; 3 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair −101

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −101, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7153 books	—	2/10
−1823 books	—	3/10
−1153 books	−1142 books	3/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	4/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	4/10
+1503 books	—	4/10
+3603 books	—	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 110.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 110.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 110.5	Under 110.5
betPARX4 min ago	−115Best	−113Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−115Best	−114
Bally Bet4 min ago	−115Best	—

Prices as of 7:12 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

110.5

111.5 → 110.5 since first seen