Kenneth Walker III

Kansas City Chiefs · RB · #9

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1556 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs LAR, 2026-01-25: 4, cleared, 4 targets
at NE, 2026-02-08: 2, missed, 4 targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 3, cleared, 6 targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 6, cleared, 10 targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 2, missed, 2 targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 1 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 2, missed, 3 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 4, cleared, 5 targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 4, cleared, 5 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 4, cleared, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 2.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 5 of 8; with another KC quarterback: no games
New team
8 games with KC; before that, SEA
Over 2.5 with KC: 5 of 8; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs running backs
ATL allow 5.1 receptions a game to running backs: 5th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.7 targets · 2026: 4.5 (8 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 14% over 8 games this season

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Receptions: 1 in 3 targets, Dec 7, 2025 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 3.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −149

Research, not a pick. At −140 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −149, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−100003 books	—	10/10
−5304 books	—	9/10
−1556 books	+1104 books	6/10
+1634 books	—	5/10
+3604 books	—	1/10
+8004 books	—	1/10
+12001 book	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel18 min ago	−140Best	+106
Bovada18 min ago	−145	+110
Pinnacle18 min ago	−148	+112
Bally Bet18 min ago	−155	—
betPARX18 min ago	−155	+118Best
BetRivers18 min ago	−155	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:37 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−148 → −155 since first seen