KC Concepcion

Cleveland Browns · WR · #1

HOU @ CLE · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1356 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

67%6 of 9L9

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 9 games (2 of 3 at home).

at JAX, 2026-09-13: 4, hit, 5 targets
at TB, 2026-09-20: 6, missed, 6 targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-27: 2, hit, 9 targets
vs PIT, 2026-10-01: 5, missed, 8 targets
at NYJ, 2026-10-11: 1, hit, 1 targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-18: 4, hit, 6 targets
at TEN, 2026-10-25: 8, missed, 10 targets
at PIT, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 4 targets
at NO, 2026-11-08: 4, hit, 6 targets

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunQuarterback
Deshaun Watson: Out. He led CLE in passing in 8 of 9 games this season
Also led: Shedeur Sanders 1 (led the last game). Under 4.5 with Watson at quarterback: 5 of 8; with another CLE quarterback: 1 of 1
Defense vs wide receivers
HOU allow 13.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 5th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6.1 (9 games)
Target share: 19% last 3 games · 19% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at NO

Splits

Under 4.5 · L9 · counts, not in order

No game against HOU on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L9 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 4; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 6 of 9
Price implies: 57%; at −135
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −145

Research, not a pick. At −122 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −145, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L9

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L9
−50003 books	—	1/9
−6254 books	—	2/9
−2204 books	—	3/9
+1046 books	−1354 books	6/9
+2104 books	—	7/9
+4104 books	—	8/9
+8004 books	—	8/9

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel6 min ago	−108	−122Best
Pinnacle7 min ago	−108	−122Best
Bovada7 min ago	+105Best	−135
betPARX7 min ago	+105Best	−136
Bally Bet7 min ago	+105Best	—
BetRivers7 min ago	+104	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under: −145 → −135 since first seen