Josh Downs

Kansas City Chiefs · WR · #2

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1175 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).

at HOU, 2026-01-04: 4, cleared, 4 targets
vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 2, missed, 4 targets
at KC, 2026-09-20: 7, cleared, 9 targets
vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 5, cleared, 11 targets
at WSH, 2026-10-04: 3, cleared, 4 targets
at PIT, 2026-10-11: 3, cleared, 6 targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-18: 4, cleared, 8 targets
at MIN, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 4 targets
at JAX, 2026-11-01: 4, cleared, 5 targets
vs DAL, 2026-11-08: 3, cleared, 6 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 8 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came before Downs joined KC. With KC: Over 2.5 in no games.

SunNew team
Downs's first game with KC; before that, IND
his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 2.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: no games; with another KC quarterback: no games
Defense vs wide receivers
ATL allow 12.7 receptions a game to wide receivers: 7th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 5 targets · 2026: 6.3 (9 games)
Target share: 17% last 3 games · 19% over 9 games this season

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Receptions: 1 in 2 targets, Nov 9, 2025 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.7; +1.2 vs line
Median: 3.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −146

Research, not a pick. At +104 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −146, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−33354 books	—	10/10
−3754 books	—	10/10
−1175 books	−1363 books	8/10
+2104 books	—	5/10
+4804 books	—	2/10
+11004 books	—	1/10
+12801 book	—	1/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle10 min ago	+104Best	−138
FanDuel9 min ago	+102	−136
Bally Bet10 min ago	−117	—
betPARX10 min ago	−117	−112Best
BetRivers10 min ago	−117	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen