Josh Cuevas
JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PMWhat's different tonight
Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightQuarterback
Lamar Jackson: Out (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Questionable, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 1.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 0 of 1; with another BAL quarterback: 3 of 4
TonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Defense vs tight ends
JAX allow 4.1 receptions a game to tight ends: 29th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 3.3 targets · 2026: 2.6 (5 games)
Target share: 11% last 3 games · 9% over 5 games this season
Game log against Over 1.5
60%3 of 5L5
Over 1.5 Receptions cleared in 3 of his last 5 games (1 of 1 at home).
Count only
Over 1.5 · L5L5 · Over 1.5
- Average
- 2
- +0.5 vs line
- Median
- 2
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 3 of 5
- Price implies
- 42%
- at +140
- Books’ fair
- 39%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 2.6
- 5 games
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 39%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L5| Line | Over | Under | L5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1401 book | −1881 book | 3/5 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel3 min ago | +140Best | −188Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:07 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Over No move since first seen


