Josh Allen
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Over 269.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 269.5 Pass+Rush Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 207.9–331.4 pass+rush yards.
What's different on Monday
Over 269.5 · facts from past games, not a pickPass attempts + carries
Last 3: 36 attempts + carries · 2026: 37.1 (7 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL
Game lines
BUF −3 · total 45 (6 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.9 on average (7 games)
MIN injuries
Theo Jackson (S, Questionable, 3.6 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)
Splits
Over 269.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 269.5
- Average
- 300.7
- +31.2 vs line
- Median
- 311.5
- +42 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −113
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −105
Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −105, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4353 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −2003 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −1133 books | −1172 books | 7/10 | |
| — | — | 7/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 7/10 | |
| +1023 books | — | 7/10 | |
| +1903 books | — | 6/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 269.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 269.5 | Under 269.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet2 min ago | −113Best | — |
| betPARX2 min ago | −113Best | −115Best |
| BetRivers2 min ago | −114 | −117 |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 3:05 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
269.5270.5 → 269.5 since first seen