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Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts · RB · #28

DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder2.5
Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1065 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 2.5

50%5 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

  1. vs JAX, 2025-12-28: 3, cleared, 6 targets
  2. at HOU, 2026-01-04: 2, missed, 2 targets
  3. vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 3, cleared, 4 targets
  4. at KC, 2026-09-20: 4, cleared, 4 targets
  5. vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 2, missed, 3 targets
  6. at WSH, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 4 targets
  7. at PIT, 2026-10-11: 3, cleared, 4 targets
  8. vs TEN, 2026-10-18: 2, missed, 4 targets
  9. at MIN, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 3 targets
  10. at JAX, 2026-11-01: 4, cleared, 5 targets
ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Over 2.5 with Jones at quarterback: 12 of 20; with another IND quarterback: 5 of 19

  • Defense vs running backs

    DAL allow 4.3 receptions a game to running backs: 17th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 4 targets · 2026: 3.9 (8 games)

    Target share: 13% last 3 games · 12% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 2.5

Average
2.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
2.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
51%
at −106
Books’ fair
48%
margin removed
Our chance
51%
estimate · fair −103

Research, not a pick. At −106 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −103, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−18001 book—10/10
−3054 books—9/10
−1065 books−1253 books5/10
+2204 books—2/10
+4504 books—0/10
+9504 books—0/10
+12001 book—0/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
Bally Bet2 min ago−106Best—
betPARX1 min ago−106Best−137
BetRivers2 min ago−106Best—
FanDueljust now−106Best−125Best
Pinnacle2 min ago−106Best−125Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 3:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: No move since first seen

Jonathan Taylor's full game log and splits