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Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh Steelers · RB · #30

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM
OverUnder2.5
Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1655 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 2.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

  1. vs BAL, 2026-01-04: 5, cleared, 5 targets
  2. vs HOU, 2026-01-12: 1, missed, 1 targets
  3. vs ATL, 2026-09-13: 5, cleared, 6 targets
  4. at NE, 2026-09-20: 2, missed, 4 targets
  5. vs CIN, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 4 targets
  6. at CLE, 2026-10-01: 3, cleared, 6 targets
  7. vs IND, 2026-10-11: 6, cleared, 6 targets
  8. at TB, 2026-10-18: 2, missed, 4 targets
  9. at NO, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 4 targets
  10. vs CLE, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 2 targets
ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Aaron Rodgers led PIT in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Over 2.5 with Rodgers at quarterback: 11 of 22; with another PIT quarterback: 14 of 27

  • Defense vs running backs

    CIN allow 4.4 receptions a game to running backs: 16th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 3.3 targets · 2026: 4.5 (8 games)

    Target share: 10% last 3 games · 12% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    13 days off since Nov 1 vs CLE

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CIN

Receptions: 3 in 4 targets, Sep 27 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 5 of 7 games against CIN on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average
3.1
+0.6 vs line
Median
3
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
62%
at −165
Books’ fair
58%
margin removed
Our chance
59%
estimate · fair −146

Research, not a pick. At −157 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −146, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−100003 books—10/10
−5604 books—8/10
−1655 books+1253 books6/10
+1505 books−1851 book3/10
+3404 books—3/10
+7504 books—1/10
+10001 book—0/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
Pinnacle14 min ago−157Best+118
Bally Bet13 min ago−165—
betPARX13 min ago−165+125
BetRivers13 min ago−167—
FanDuel13 min ago−172+128Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:33 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−172 → −165 since first seen

Jaylen Warren's full game log and splits