Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh Steelers · RB · #30

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM

Over Under25.5

Over 25.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1125 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 25.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).

vs BAL, 2026-01-04: 33, cleared, 5 targets
vs HOU, 2026-01-12: 4, missed, 1 targets
vs ATL, 2026-09-13: 27, cleared, 6 targets
at NE, 2026-09-20: 34, cleared, 4 targets
vs CIN, 2026-09-27: 49, cleared, 4 targets
at CLE, 2026-10-01: 33, cleared, 6 targets
vs IND, 2026-10-11: 87, cleared, 6 targets
at TB, 2026-10-18: 28, cleared, 4 targets
at NO, 2026-10-25: 36, cleared, 4 targets
vs CLE, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 2 targets

ClearedMissedThe 25.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 6.1–69 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 25.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers led PIT in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 25.5 with Rodgers at quarterback: 12 of 22; with another PIT quarterback: 8 of 27
Defense vs running backs
CIN allow 32.3 receiving yards a game to running backs: 16th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 3.3 targets · 2026: 4.5 (8 games)
Target share: 10% last 3 games · 12% over 8 games this season
Rest
13 days off since Nov 1 vs CLE

Splits

Over 25.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CIN

Receiving Yards: 49 in 4 targets, Sep 27 (home)

Over 25.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against CIN on record

L10 · Over 25.5

Average: 33.1; +7.6 vs line
Median: 33; +7.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −112
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −157

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −157, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3101 book	—	8/10
−1864 books	—	8/10
−1251 book	—	8/10
−1125 books	−1174 books	8/10
+1204 books	—	6/10
+2304 books	—	2/10
+4104 books	—	1/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 25.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 25.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 25.5	Under 25.5
Bally Bet8 min ago	−110Best	—
betPARX8 min ago	−110Best	−117
BetRivers8 min ago	−112	−118
FanDuel8 min ago	−114	−114Best
Pinnacle8 min ago	−114	−114Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

25.5

−114 → −112 since first seen