Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Seattle Seahawks · WR · #11

SEA @ LV · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM

Over Under89.5

Over 89.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1135 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 89.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

at NE, 2026-02-08: 27, missed, 10 targets
vs NE, 2026-09-09: 122, cleared, 11 targets
at ARI, 2026-09-20: 155, cleared, 11 targets
at WSH, 2026-09-27: 128, cleared, 14 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-04: 76, missed, 6 targets
vs SF, 2026-10-11: 102, cleared, 8 targets
at DEN, 2026-10-15: 134, cleared, 16 targets
vs KC, 2026-10-25: 150, cleared, 12 targets
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 118, cleared, 11 targets
vs ARI, 2026-11-08: 51, missed, 10 targets

ClearedMissedThe 89.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 46.8–133.7 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 89.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Sam Darnold at quarterback; Darnold is out on Sunday. Without him (SEA): Over 89.5 in 6 of 29.

SunQuarterback
Sam Darnold: Out (quadriceps). He led SEA in passing in 6 of 9 games this season
Also led: Drew Lock 3 (Questionable, oblique, led the last game). Over 89.5 with Darnold at quarterback: 19 of 26; with another SEA quarterback: 6 of 29
Defense vs wide receivers
LV allow 160.8 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 8th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 11 targets · 2026: 11 (9 games)
Target share: 37% last 3 games · 34% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs ARI

Splits

Over 89.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LV on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 89.5

Average: 106.3; +16.8 vs line
Median: 120; +30.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −124

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −124, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4354 books	—	8/10
−2654 books	—	8/10
−1674 books	—	7/10
−1135 books	−1174 books	7/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	7/10
+1304 books	—	7/10
+1804 books	—	6/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 89.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 89.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 89.5	Under 89.5
Bally Bet8 min ago	−112Best	—
betPARX8 min ago	−112Best	−117
BetRivers8 min ago	−113	−118
FanDuel8 min ago	−114	−114Best
Pinnacle8 min ago	−114	−114Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

89.5

−114 → −113 since first seen