Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Seattle Seahawks · WR · #11

SEA @ LV · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM

Over Under7.5

Under 7.5 Receptions, typical price −1406 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Receptions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).

at NE, 2026-02-08: 4, hit, 10 targets
vs NE, 2026-09-09: 8, missed, 11 targets
at ARI, 2026-09-20: 9, missed, 11 targets
at WSH, 2026-09-27: 10, missed, 14 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-04: 5, hit, 6 targets
vs SF, 2026-10-11: 5, hit, 8 targets
at DEN, 2026-10-15: 12, missed, 16 targets
vs KC, 2026-10-25: 9, missed, 12 targets
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 6, hit, 11 targets
vs ARI, 2026-11-08: 7, hit, 10 targets

Under hitMissedThe 7.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3–9 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunQuarterback
Sam Darnold: Out (quadriceps). He led SEA in passing in 6 of 9 games this season
Also led: Drew Lock 3 (Questionable, oblique, led the last game). Under 7.5 with Darnold at quarterback: 12 of 26; with another SEA quarterback: 22 of 29
Defense vs wide receivers
LV allow 10.2 receptions a game to wide receivers: 24th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 11 targets · 2026: 11 (9 games)
Target share: 37% last 3 games · 34% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs ARI

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LV on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 7.5

Average: 7.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 7.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −141

Research, not a pick. At −135 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −141, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9104 books	—	1/10
−3754 books	—	3/10
−1804 books	—	4/10
+1066 books	−1404 books	5/10
+1854 books	—	6/10
+3204 books	—	8/10
+5404 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
Bovada13 min ago	+105	−135Best
betPARX13 min ago	+106Best	−137
FanDuel13 min ago	+106Best	−140
Pinnacle14 min ago	+106Best	−140
Bally Bet13 min ago	+106Best	—
BetRivers13 min ago	+105	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

No move since first seen