James Cook III
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Over 17.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 9.6–22.8 rushing attempts.
What's different on Monday
Over 17.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Josh Allen led BUF in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 17.5 with Allen at quarterback: 23 of 53; with another BUF quarterback: 0 of 2
Defense vs running backs
MIN allow 22.6 carries a game to running backs: 16th most of 32
7 games
Carries
Last 3: 22.7 carries · 2026: 19.7 (7 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL
Splits
Over 17.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 17.5
- Average
- 17.9
- +0.4 vs line
- Median
- 21
- +3.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 57%
- at −132
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 53%
- estimate · fair −111
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −6253 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −2653 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −1324 books | −1142 books | 6/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 6/10 | |
| +1453 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +2703 books | — | 4/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks at 17.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 17.5 | Under 17.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle3 min ago | −114Best | −114 |
| Bally Bet3 min ago | −132 | — |
| betPARX3 min ago | −132 | +102Best |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −132 | — |
Prices as of 2:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
17.5−125 → −132 since first seen