James Cook III

Buffalo Bills · RB · #4

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under102.5

Under 102.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1133 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 102.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 on the road).

at JAX, 2026-01-11: 51, hit, 18 carries + targets
at DEN, 2026-01-17: 141, missed, 27 carries + targets
at HOU, 2026-09-13: 69, hit, 17 carries + targets
vs DET, 2026-09-17: 139, missed, 24 carries + targets
vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 154, missed, 25 carries + targets
vs NE, 2026-10-04: 83, hit, 14 carries + targets
at LAR, 2026-10-12: 118, missed, 26 carries + targets
at LV, 2026-10-18: 153, missed, 25 carries + targets
vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 101, hit, 24 carries + targets
at MIN, 2026-11-09: 107, missed, 32 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 102.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 51.9–132.7 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 102.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Josh Allen led BUF in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 102.5 with Allen at quarterback: 27 of 54; with another BUF quarterback: 2 of 2
Defense vs running backs
NYJ allow 138.8 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 9th most of 32
9 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 27 carries + targets · 2026: 23.4 (8 games)
Target share: 7% last 3 games · 8% over 8 games this season
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 at MIN

Splits

Under 102.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ in his last 10; Under 102.5 hit in 3 of 4 against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NYJ

Rush+Rec Yards: 15 in 2 carries + targets, Jan 4 (home)

Under 102.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against NYJ on record

L10 · Under 102.5

Average: 111.6; +9.1 vs line
Median: 112.5; +10 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −103

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −103, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5903 books	—	2/10
−1363 books	—	3/10
−1173 books	−1132 books	4/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	4/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	4/10
+2153 books	—	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 102.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 102.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 102.5	Under 102.5
betPARX5 min ago	−117Best	−112Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−118	−113
Bally Bet5 min ago	−117Best	—

Prices as of 7:12 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

102.5

105.5 → 102.5 since first seen