Jakobi MeyersQuestionable

Jacksonville Jaguars · WR · #3

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM

Over Under40.5

Over 40.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 40.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week
Defense vs wide receivers
BAL allow 177.6 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 5th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 4.4 (7 games)
Target share: 17% last 3 games · 15% over 7 games this season
Game lines
JAX −9.5 · total 40.5 (8 sportsbooks)
JAX's games this season closed at 44.8 on average (7 games)

30%3 of 10L10

Over 40.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (0 of 3 on the road).

at IND, 2025-12-28: 39, missed, 9 targets
vs TEN, 2026-01-04: 44, cleared, 6 targets
vs BUF, 2026-01-11: 12, missed, 4 targets
vs CLE, 2026-09-13: 40, missed, 2 targets
at DEN, 2026-09-20: 28, missed, 1 targets
vs NE, 2026-09-27: 64, cleared, 8 targets
at CIN, 2026-10-04: 33, missed, 4 targets
vs PHI, 2026-10-11: 37, missed, 3 targets
vs HOU, 2026-10-18: 83, cleared, 10 targets
vs IND, 2026-11-01: 24, missed, 3 targets

ClearedMissedThe 40.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 40.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BAL in his last 10; Over 40.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BAL

Receiving Yards: 29 in 5 targets, Sep 15, 2024 (away)

Over 40.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against BAL on record

L10 · Over 40.5

Average: 40.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 38; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 30%; 3 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Targets: 5; 10 games · 6.7 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 40.5 50%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1141 book	—	5/10
−1124 books	−1173 books	5/10
−1065 books	−1151 book	4/10
−1143 books	−1143 books	3/10
+1554 books	—	2/10
+2404 books	—	2/10
+3704 books	—	1/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 40.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 40.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 40.5	Under 40.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Bovada2 min ago	−115	−115
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:02 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

40.5

41.5 → 40.5 since first seen