Jahmyr Gibbs

Detroit Lions · RB · #0

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1556 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs PIT, 2025-12-21: 10, cleared, 13 targets
at MIN, 2025-12-25: 2, missed, 3 targets
at CHI, 2026-01-04: 3, missed, 5 targets
vs NO, 2026-09-13: 5, cleared, 5 targets
at BUF, 2026-09-17: 6, cleared, 8 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 7, cleared, 8 targets
at CAR, 2026-10-04: 4, cleared, 7 targets
at ARI, 2026-10-11: 5, cleared, 6 targets
vs GB, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 6 targets
vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 2, missed, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs running backs
MIA allow 5.3 receptions a game to running backs: 6th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 6.3 (7 games)
Target share: 18% last 3 games · 18% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs MIN
Game lines
DET −7 · total 50 (6 sportsbooks)
DET's games this season closed at 51.8 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 4.9; +1.4 vs line
Median: 5; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −169

Research, not a pick. At −152 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −169, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−16674 books	—	10/10
−4004 books	—	8/10
−1556 books	+1154 books	7/10
+1404 books	—	6/10
+2754 books	—	3/10
+5254 books	—	2/10
+10504 books	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel12 min ago	−152Best	+114
Pinnacle13 min ago	−152Best	+115
Bally Bet13 min ago	−155	—
betPARX13 min ago	−155	+118
BetRivers13 min ago	−155	—
Bovada12 min ago	−160	+120Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over: −130 → −155 since first seen