Jahmyr Gibbs

Detroit Lions · RB · #0

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under28.5

Over 28.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1176 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 28.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

vs PIT, 2025-12-21: 66, cleared, 13 targets
at MIN, 2025-12-25: 23, missed, 3 targets
at CHI, 2026-01-04: 33, cleared, 5 targets
vs NO, 2026-09-13: 30, cleared, 5 targets
at BUF, 2026-09-17: 61, cleared, 8 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 65, cleared, 8 targets
at CAR, 2026-10-04: 31, cleared, 7 targets
at ARI, 2026-10-11: 56, cleared, 6 targets
vs GB, 2026-10-25: 27, missed, 6 targets
vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 15, missed, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 28.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 11.9–68.2 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs running backs
MIA allow 40.6 receiving yards a game to running backs: 8th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 6.3 (7 games)
Target share: 18% last 3 games · 18% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs MIN
Game lines
DET −7 · total 50 (8 sportsbooks)
DET's games this season closed at 51.8 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 28.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 28.5

Average: 40.7; +12.2 vs line
Median: 32; +3.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −147, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4201 book	—	10/10
−2654 books	—	9/10
−1581 book	—	8/10
−1176 books	−1145 books	7/10
−1084 books	pick'em only	7/10
+1904 books	—	4/10
+3704 books	—	4/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 28.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 28.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 28.5	Under 28.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−114Best	−114
Pinnacle3 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bovada3 min ago	−115	−115
Bally Bet3 min ago	−117	—
betPARX3 min ago	−117	−112Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−118	−113
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

28.5

−114 → −117 since first seen