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Hunter HenryQuestionable

New England Patriots · TE · #85

NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM
OverUnder3.5
Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1541 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 3.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

  1. vs SEA, 2026-02-08: 3, hit, 5 targets
  2. at SEA, 2026-09-09: 3, hit, 3 targets
  3. vs PIT, 2026-09-20: 3, hit, 5 targets
  4. at JAX, 2026-09-27: 1, hit, 2 targets
  5. at BUF, 2026-10-04: 5, missed, 5 targets
  6. vs LV, 2026-10-11: 3, hit, 4 targets
  7. vs NYJ, 2026-10-18: 4, missed, 5 targets
  8. at CHI, 2026-10-22: 7, missed, 7 targets
  9. at MIA, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 3 targets
  10. vs GB, 2026-11-08: 3, hit, 3 targets
Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunDefense vs tight ends

    DET allow 8.0 receptions a game to tight ends: the most of 32

    8 games

  • Quarterback

    Drake Maye led NE in passing in 9 of 9 games this season

    Under 3.5 with Maye at quarterback: 21 of 40; with another NE quarterback: 7 of 10

  • Targets

    Last 3: 4.3 targets · 2026: 4.1 (9 games)

    Target share: 14% last 3 games · 13% over 9 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 vs GB

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 3.5

Average
3.5
±0 vs line
Median
3
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
61%
at −154
Books’ fair
57%
margin removed
Our chance
58%
estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −154 the price is worse than our fair −135, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−7501 book—1/10
−2251 book—1/10
+1161 book−1541 book7/10
+2401 book—8/10
+4901 book—9/10
+8801 book—9/10
+14001 book—10/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
FanDuel17 min ago+116Best−154Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: No move since first seen

Hunter Henry's full game log and splits