Harold Fannin Jr.Questionable
CLE @ NO · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 43.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 43.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–114.8 receiving yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 43.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Deshaun Watson: Questionable (concussion). He led CLE in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 43.5 with Watson at quarterback: 4 of 8; with another CLE quarterback: 7 of 16
Defense vs tight ends
NO allow 68.4 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 6th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 8 targets · 2026: 6.4 (8 games)
Target share: 23% last 3 games · 20% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at PIT
3rd straight road game
Splits
Over 43.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 43.5
- Average
- 47.5
- +4 vs line
- Median
- 32
- −11.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −116
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2751 book | — | 6/10 | |
| −1461 book | — | 4/10 | |
| −1201 book | −1101 book | 4/10 | |
| −1162 books | −1142 books | 4/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 4/10 | |
| +1221 book | — | 4/10 | |
| +2001 book | — | 2/10 |
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 43.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 43.5 | Under 43.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel5 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| Pinnacle16 min ago | −116 | −114Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
43.5−114 → −116 since first seen