Gunnar Helm

Tennessee Titans · TE · #84

JAX @ TEN · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1753 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

at SF, 2025-12-14: 4, missed, 4 targets
vs KC, 2025-12-21: 2, hit, 3 targets
vs NO, 2025-12-28: 1, hit, 2 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-09-13: 4, missed, 5 targets
vs PHI, 2026-09-20: 2, hit, 2 targets
at NYG, 2026-09-27: 2, hit, 4 targets
at BAL, 2026-10-04: 1, hit, 1 targets
vs HOU, 2026-10-11: 0, hit, 1 targets
vs CLE, 2026-10-25: 3, missed, 4 targets
at CIN, 2026-11-01: 5, missed, 9 targets

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs tight ends
JAX allow 4.0 receptions a game to tight ends: 31st most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.7 targets · 2026: 3.7 (7 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 12% over 7 games this season
Rest
13 days off since Nov 1 at CIN
Game lines
TEN +10.5 · total 46.5 (8 sportsbooks)
TEN's games this season closed at 40.3 on average (8 games)

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 0 of 1 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Helm didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; receptions the last time Helm faced them: 6 (Nov 30, 2025)

Under 2.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against JAX on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −127

Research, not a pick. At −175 the price is worse than our fair −127, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2453 books	—	3/10
+1183 books	−1751 book	6/10
+2753 books	—	7/10
+5503 books	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
betPARX7 min ago	+118Best	−175Best
Bally Bet7 min ago	+118Best	—
BetRivers7 min ago	+118Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −135 → −175 since first seen