Geno Smith

New York Jets · QB · #7

NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under212.5

Over 212.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1154 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 212.5 Passing Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at HOU, 2025-12-21: 201, missed, 23 attempts
vs NYG, 2025-12-28: 176, missed, 28 attempts
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 215, cleared, 24 attempts
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 247, cleared, 41 attempts
at DET, 2026-09-27: 321, cleared, 37 attempts
at CHI, 2026-10-04: 119, missed, 15 attempts
vs CLE, 2026-10-11: 182, missed, 30 attempts
at NE, 2026-10-18: 252, cleared, 30 attempts
vs MIA, 2026-10-25: 287, cleared, 30 attempts
vs LV, 2026-11-01: 290, cleared, 32 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 212.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 146.4–314.4 passing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 212.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with NYJ; before that, LV
Over 212.5 with NYJ: 6 of 8; his last 10 games before: 3 of 10
Defense vs quarterbacks
KC allow 228.4 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 20th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 30.7 attempts · 2026: 29.9 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs LV

Splits

Over 212.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Over 212.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Passing Yards: 67 in 16 attempts, Oct 19, 2025 (away)

Over 212.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Over 212.5

Average: 229; +16.5 vs line
Median: 231; +18.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −140, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2953 books	—	8/10
−1624 books	—	7/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	6/10
−1154 books	−1153 books	6/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	6/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	6/10
+1204 books	—	5/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 212.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 212.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 212.5	Under 212.5
Bally Bet2 min ago	−114Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−115	−115
Bovada2 min ago	−115	−115
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

212.5

213.5 → 212.5 since first seen