Geno Smith

New York Jets · QB · #7

NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under223.5

Over 223.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1133 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 223.5 Pass+Rush Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

at HOU, 2025-12-21: 201, missed, 23 attempts + carries
vs NYG, 2025-12-28: 177, missed, 29 attempts + carries
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 222, missed, 30 attempts + carries
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 264, cleared, 46 attempts + carries
at DET, 2026-09-27: 333, cleared, 39 attempts + carries
at CHI, 2026-10-04: 119, missed, 15 attempts + carries
vs CLE, 2026-10-11: 189, missed, 35 attempts + carries
at NE, 2026-10-18: 251, cleared, 32 attempts + carries
vs MIA, 2026-10-25: 287, cleared, 32 attempts + carries
vs LV, 2026-11-01: 294, cleared, 33 attempts + carries

ClearedMissedThe 223.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 154–326.9 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 223.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with NYJ; before that, LV
Over 223.5 with NYJ: 5 of 8; his last 10 games before: 3 of 10
Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 32.3 attempts + carries · 2026: 32.8 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs LV
Game lines
NYJ +10 · total 47 (7 sportsbooks)
NYJ's games this season closed at 43 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 223.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Over 223.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Pass+Rush Yards: 68 in 18 attempts + carries, Oct 19, 2025 (away)

Over 223.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Over 223.5

Average: 233.7; +10.2 vs line
Median: 236.5; +13 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −127

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −127, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4203 books	—	8/10
−2203 books	—	7/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	5/10
−1133 books	−1172 books	5/10
−1093 books	—	5/10
+1703 books	—	5/10
+3103 books	—	3/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 223.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 223.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 223.5	Under 223.5
Bally Bet10 min ago	−113Best	—
betPARX10 min ago	−113Best	−115Best
BetRivers10 min ago	−114	−117

Prices as of 5:52 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

223.5

Over: −114 → −113 since first seen