Geno Smith

New York Jets · QB · #7

NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under19.5

Over 19.5 Completions, typical price −1343 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 19.5 Completions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

at HOU, 2025-12-21: 16, missed, 23 attempts
vs NYG, 2025-12-28: 20, cleared, 28 attempts
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 19, missed, 24 attempts
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 27, cleared, 41 attempts
at DET, 2026-09-27: 31, cleared, 37 attempts
at CHI, 2026-10-04: 8, missed, 15 attempts
vs CLE, 2026-10-11: 17, missed, 30 attempts
at NE, 2026-10-18: 20, cleared, 30 attempts
vs MIA, 2026-10-25: 23, cleared, 30 attempts
vs LV, 2026-11-01: 20, cleared, 32 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 19.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 11.7–29.3 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with NYJ; before that, LV
Over 19.5 with NYJ: 5 of 8; his last 10 games before: 4 of 10
Defense vs quarterbacks
KC allow 21.7 completions a game to quarterbacks: 13th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 30.7 attempts · 2026: 29.9 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs LV

Splits

Over 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC in his last 10; Over 19.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs KC

Completions: 10 in 16 attempts, Oct 19, 2025 (away)

Over 19.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against KC on record

L10 · Over 19.5

Average: 20.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 20; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −134
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −134 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1343 books	+1021 book	6/10
+1051 book	−1351 book	3/10
+4103 books	—	2/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 19.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 19.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 19.5	Under 19.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	−134Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	−134Best	+102Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−134Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:14 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

19.5

No move since first seen